Part 2 of the Podcast Transcript: Dave & Derek discuss some common traps handicappers fall into. Today’s topic has to do with resisting the need to get on your soapbox.
Dave: Let us go onto number 2. This one is to feel the need to get on the soap box. I am going to go first on this one because I kind of do not have this need as I am so rarely in a group of people when I handicap.
Derek: That is not true, you want to do this first because you want to get on a soap box, you are doing exactly what you tell our listeners not to do. But go ahead, that is fine.
Dave: I still experience it because when I do online seminars especially the ones like two day seminars were we are at it for hour after hour, when we get to the handicapping part I am pretty clear about who I like. The scenario I am really searching for here is for most people who go to the track, hang out with their friends and it is important to most of us to earn the respect of our friends. Can you identify?
Dave: Sometimes we paint ourselves into a corner because we kind of went public on this horse. The example that came to my mind is I like this horse a lot and he looks like he is going to be 10,12-1, something like that. I really think this horse has a chance, get to be about six minutes down to post, he is down to 8-1, I still like him and pretty soon you are talking about how you are going to key this horse in exactas and trifectas.
Pretty soon your mind is running away with itself. At four minutes to post he is down to 9-2 and you are saying he is still a good bet even at 9-2. When they are loading the gate and he is down to 5-2 you realize he is not a good bet anymore but now you have mentally bought into it. Can you identity with that?
Derek: Absolutely. In fact a lot of times in columns that I write I talk about a false favorite, I hate this horse and I go on and on about how I hated this horse because it was a favorite. Come race time the horse is 5-1, then I get into it, he used to make me so mad. I have never been good at predicting what the final odds are going to be, I know some people are great at that, but I am not, I do not know how the crowd is going to bet.
But if you cannot hardly go back and say I like him now because he is 5-1 but we were just talking earlier. If I am trying to eliminate a favorite there has to be a lot of different reasons I do not like him, price absolutely plays apart into that. When there is that situation then when the favorite is 6-1, 8-1 or whatever, I am not talking about the morning line favorite, suddenly all the analysis goes out the window. But as someone who wrote the article, I cannot go back and say, “Well at 8/1, I actually like the horse,” so I just had to deal with it. It was kind of getting on my soap box and then wishing I did not have a soap box, it is embarrassing.
That concludes Part 2 of 5 Ways to Destroy Your Chances of Winning, check back for the rest of the series.
About Derek Simon:
I love numbers and analysis and have been able to parlay that into an exciting career writing about two of my greatest passions — business and sports.
In addition to working as a freelance financial writer for Newsmax, The Motley Fool, Investopedia/Forbes, Beacon Equity Research and Investor Concepts (among others), I was also the editor of Small Cap Insider, a monthly newsletter highlighting investment opportunities in the small cap sector.
Currently, I am the editorial director for US Racing where I contribute written, audio and video content and oversee a team of talented and passionate writers.
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