Transcript of Podcast Part 5: Dave & Derek address how fishing for giant payoffs can be one of the ways to destroy your chances of winning.
Dave: I completely agree. But let us move onto our final topic for the day. Number 5, fish for giant payoffs that are beyond your bankroll.
I am going to go first with this one. What I am really talking about is it is closing weekend at Gulf Stream Park and there is a pick six carryover of $1.5 mil let us say, it could be even more, you are going to work extra hard the night before and you are typically a $20 go to the races with $300, $400 maximum guy. Now you are dreaming of hitting this pick six, it is a life changer even if you only get a third of the pool. You have to invest a lot of money to be competitive in that environment
Derek: I agree and this is something I see a lot on social media. Guys will post their winning tickets and I will congratulate them. But I look at the ticket and they played $400 on a straight bet and threw another $200 on an exacta bet.
I am just not betting like that. You have to be aware that when you are playing the pick six or these kinds of things – yes you can hit it on a small ticket but the chances are very remote. You are basically throwing your money away in those situations.
I have hit one pick six in my life and guess what? It was the rainbow six at Gulf Stream Park where it is a 10-cent minimum and it was a mandatory payoff. Therefore, I knew I had to get something and I hit that one because I was able to play it like I wanted to. What will happen to a lot of people is that they will bet more than they want to but not as much as they think they should. Then they will miss that race and it is devastating.
Oh my gosh for another $30 I could have had this! That is the wrong mindset to go in with, you did not have enough money period. I think chasing a lot of those big payoffs when you do not have the bankroll for it, it is a great way to erode your capital. If you are going out once or twice a month and that is what you want to do fine but it is generally not a great thing to do.
Dave: You said a phrase I really like: “It is a great way to erode your capital.” That is what this is all about. All five of these items we have discussed today are sure fire ways to damage your bankroll and that happens to be a big one. But it does not have to be pick six or even big payoffs like that.
I have a great story. We had a local HSH user, our software for those of you who do not know, who lived here in Reno. Joe was his name. He was from Hot Springs Arkansas, retired here in Reno. I would go in and buy a racing form and then come home with it every day and see him in what is now called the Grand Sierra. He played Northern and Southern California.
Joe would use my software and always take his top horse in each race and bet $1 on the pick three, a $1 ticket. I walk in one day and he said let me show you something, I am sick. He shows me his picks in I do not know what races they were, they were just three consecutive races. H said each of the picks was 15, 20, 30-1 on morning line. He said I looked at that and thought I might as well just keep the $1 and give it to the cocktail waitress. The three horses came in and no one took the pool. For lack of $1 he lost $39,000! Well the pool was $39,000 and nobody hit it!
Derek: That goes to my point. I think that is going to happen more often than not – that you are always going to be short. There are many times… I am actually very good at superfectas but one of the things when you are playing superfectas – you have to keep in mind that any of those kind of vertical bets it is easier to pick the winner than it is to pick the place horse than it is to pick the third and fourth place horse.
The times on the bottom those are horses that are just plodding, a lot of it for me depends on the pace scenario but you have to fill out those bottom tiers. There have been so many times when I want to spend $8 not $12, you get the long shot to win, maybe a decent price for second and third and you have the fourth place horse. That is a big issue with these types of things.
In fact, I would expound upon that a little too. How many people even have a bankroll or even think in those terms. Usually, you are going out to the track, you have like $100 or $200 in your pocket. There is a reason there are ATM machines at race tracks.
The best race plans that many people talk about they go astray at the race track. I would even add that having a plan before you go in – even if you do not have a formal bankroll – have some idea of how much you want to spend.
Then start looking at your bets based on that and that will give you an idea as to whether or not you can bet that pick six, pick three or whatever. I would posit most people do not even do that, they just go in and bet Willy Nilly. Because we see it all the time – someone goes in and plays the races. I have seen this DOTB, when I was a regular I was like can you spare $2 and it is early, like 12:30 in the afternoon and they are already broke. That is not the way you want to go about life.
That concludes Part 5 of 5 Ways to Destroy Your Chances of Winning.
About Derek Simon:
I love numbers and analysis and have been able to parlay that into an exciting career writing about two of my greatest passions — business and sports.
In addition to working as a freelance financial writer for Newsmax, The Motley Fool, Investopedia/Forbes, Beacon Equity Research and Investor Concepts (among others), I was also the editor of Small Cap Insider, a monthly newsletter highlighting investment opportunities in the small cap sector.
Currently, I am the editorial director for US Racing where I contribute written, audio and video content and oversee a team of talented and passionate writers.
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