Pace Makes The Race.com

Horse Handicapping Systems

(775) 853-1234
Got a question? Send an email
  • Home
  • About Dave Schwartz
  • Blog
  • Handicapping Videos
  • Store
  • Category List

    Category List

    • Newest Stuff
    • Dave’s Favorites
    • Getting Started
    • Fun Players
    • Going Pro
    • Talking Handicapping Videos
    • Archives

Laurel Park | Is There Really a Bias with the 1 1/16 Miles Course?

1 1/16 Miles at Laurel Park: Is There Really a Bias?
This question turned out to be amazingly simple to answer. In our database, we show 1,524 races run on fast tracks. If we simply break them down by post position, here are the results.

Laurel, 1 1/16 miles – Post Position
Starts Wins Win% $Net IV PIV Avg Pay Avg Odds Avg PubCh
1 1,524 352 23.1 $2.32 1.71 1.38 $10.03 4.05 3.7
2 1,524 264 17.3 $1.84 1.28 1.20 $10.62 4.87 4.1
3 1,524 221 14.5 $1.67 1.07 1.03 $11.50 5.02 4.1
4 1,522 182 12.0 $1.29 0.88 0.88 $10.81 5.26 4.3
5 1,511 168 11.1 $1.39 0.83 0.81 $12.51 5.17 4.2
6 1,460 144 9.9 $1.22 0.75 0.77 $12.37 5.64 4.5
7 1,214 94 7.7 $1.00 0.62 0.68 $12.89 6.45 4.7
8 763 66 8.7 $1.57 0.76 0.81 $18.12 6.91 4.9
up 623 39 6.3 $0.86 0.60 0.67 $13.67 8.08 5.5
total 11,665 1,530 13.1 $1.51 1.00 0.98 $11.55 5.30 4.3

This data shows without a doubt that the 1 1/16 mile distance at Laurel truly is beatable simply with post position.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about this study is that the public has knowledge of this bias as evidenced by the average odds and public choice columns. In spite of their knowledge they simply under bet these horses.

Let’s break this study down by Quirin Early Speed Points and see if there is any pattern.

(Editor’s note: The totals in the following sections will not match the totals above because first-time starters and foreign starters have been removed.)

 

Closers – 0 Early Speed Points
PP sts win w% IV
1 317 48 15% 1.13
2 317 42 13% 1.01
3 312 34 11% 0.83
4 326 34 10% 0.79
5 312 25 8% 0.60
6 273 26 10% 0.73
7 254 10 4% 0.32
8 177 16 9% 0.79
9 114 8 7% 0.66
10 54 2 4% 0.37
11+ 0 0 0% –
Total 2,456 245 10% 0.78
Mid-Pack Horses – 1 to 4 Early Speed Points
PP sts win w% IV
1 587 132 22% 1.68
2 592 99 17% 1.22
3 601 81 13% 1.00
4 559 56 10% 0.75
5 575 67 12% 0.87
6 623 56 9% 0.68
7 480 41 9% 0.69
8 311 28 9% 0.79
9 170 11 6% 0.61
10 81 5 6% 0.62
11+ 0 0 0% –
Total 4,579 576 13% 0.97
Front Runners – 5 to 8 Early Speed Points
PP sts win w% IV
1 613 174 28% 2.06
2 611 126 21% 1.51
3 606 102 17% 1.21
4 631 90 14% 1.04
5 620 72 12% 0.86
6 559 63 11% 0.85
7 476 41 9% 0.68
8 272 23 8% 0.74
9 142 10 7% 0.66
10 60 4 7% 0.67
11+ 0 0 0% 0
Total 4,590 705 15% 1.16

And what of the obvious question of track condition?

In this sample, we consider only those races run on “off” tracks. That is, races that were not  “fast” or “good.”

PP – “Off” Tracks
ALL Sts Pays PCT $NET
1 169 47 27.8 $3.08
2 169 30 17.8 $2.29
3 169 25 14.8 $1.98
4 169 23 13.6 $1.18
5 162 16 9.9 $1.06
6 144 13 9.0 $1.22
7 114 6 5.3 $1.70
8 63 8 12.7 $2.56
up 43 1 2.3 $0.42
Total 1,202 169 14.1 $1.80

Here we see that the bias is about the same from a standpoint of win%, but that the public manages to forget to consider post position all together!

By the way, the sample of “good” tracks was small (70 races) and showed a diminished bias.

Summary

There really is a post position bias at Laurel! It is so pronounced that if one had done nothing but bet horses in post position one over the last few years, a profit of at least 16% per wagered dollar would have been realized.

Furthermore, looking at the impact of running style, using the Quirin Early Speed Point approach, shows us that the greater the likelihood of the horse being a front runner, the stronger the bias becomes.

On off tracks, the mid-pack horses showed improvement over the front runners, but closers did dismally. In other words, the bias is still intact.

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

  • Facebook
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

Blog Posts

  • Blog Posts By Title
  • Archives By Month

Copyright © 2023 · Executive Pro Theme on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in

Copyright 2018 Pace Makes The Race.com All Rights Reserved.
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • Site Map
  • Contact Dave Schwartz