We are all concerned with being long-term winners. What if we changed our thinking to NOT BEING long-term losers?
The goal of this exercise is to envision what can go wrong. If we go back to the ancient Greeks, the Stoics believed that if we could imagine the worst case scenario ahead of time, it would be easier to avoid that outcome. To a horse player, the worst possible outcome would be losing the bankroll.
Before you give up on this, remember that I am the guy that continually tries to get you to think out of the box. You know my mantra: “If you are winning, then keep doing what you’re doing. But, if you’re not winning, then you should be open to new ideas.” This is one of those ideas.
This particular approach to thinking, is known as “inversion.” This “worst-case scenario” approach is very common in the business world, but I seriously doubt that very many handicappers have ever considered this. As we work through this exercise, trying to think above the race level. That is, do not approach this from the standpoint of, “How do I not lose this race?” Instead, think more like, “I have a $500 bankroll. How do I avoid losing that bankroll?”
Avoiding mistakes is an underappreciated way to improve an end result. This is because in most jobs and careers, you can become reasonably successful just by showing up and doing your job on a regular basis. If we were to apply this to the workplace, it would be like looking at a new employee and saying, “Let me tell you how to fail.”
What are the specifics of this approach? Let’s begin with a theoretical situation where a friend of yours comes to you and says, “I have $500 and over the next three months I need to win $1000 betting on horses. Would you give me some advice of the pitfalls that I will likely face in the next three months?”
As we go through this exercise (on the video) you will see how natural it is for the “sacred cows of horse racing” to just naturally come to the surface. For example, many people would say things such as:
- Never bet the favorite
- Never play a layoff horse
- Never chase money when you’re losing
But in this example, you should look at this from a higher level. Think of it as asking the question, “What long-term strategy mistakes would lead me to lose my bankroll?”
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