How to Make Your Handicapping Process Work Better
Handicappers live or die by the process they use to handicap with. You should constantly be striving to improve and simplify your handicapping process. A common pitfall is to fall into the habit of giving minor factors too much importance.
Recently, in our Talking Handicapping Group on Facebook, players were discussing contender selection. Some people put forth factors that they felt were important enough to be a major part of their handicapping. Someone mentioned that they like to for horses that were racing for the second time after a layoff.
Second race after a layoff is a perfect example of a minor factor being used as a major one. Simply put, this factor lacks punch.
In the table above the question that is being asked is, “How many races has the horse had since its last 30 day layoff?” The highlighted row represents horses that have had precisely one race, therefore, making today’s race their second after a layoff.
There is simply nothing much to recommend about this factor! Its impact value (i.e. importance) indicates only a 4% improvement in hit rate, and the $Net (i.e. average return per $2 wagered) Is actually the lowest in the entire table!
Now, I know that there are people out there who honestly believe that this factor has GREAT IMPORTANCE in the handicapping scheme. This is a false belief.
I like to call these false beliefs”sacred cows” because they have been considered sacred and untouchable for decades. How many of these do you use daily in your handicapping?
Special Note: All the examples in this video come from my 2012 handicapping E-book, Percentages & Probabilities, 2012. It is the #1 best-seller in our store.
Watch the video for the rest of the story.
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