Improving Your Game
Episode 1 | How Good Are The Public’s Choices
The horse handicapper of today needs to be aware that the “whales” have had quite an impact on racing. It is especially obvious in public choice rank as the win percentage on favorites has gone up significantly. At the same time, fields have gotten slightly smaller – decreasing by about 0.5 horses per race over the past 10 years.
Episode 2 | Do Older Horses Have An Edge?
Do older horses have an edge against 3 year olds? The results may surprise you! Non maiden races with three and four year old horses are broken down to show the results of Dave’s careful analysis.
Episode 3 | How Big A Factor Is Recency?
Recency has been part of horse handicapping since at least the 1970’s. This concerns the impact of the days since a workout or last race, and how it affects the horse’s performance on the race track. These long held beliefs are challenged by Dave!
Episode 4 | What About Recent Works?
How long has it been since your horse was on the track? Episode 4 discusses the impact of workouts and the days since the horse last raced. Performance and dollar return in several categories are compared.
Episode 5 | Quirin Form Factors
In 1979 Dr William Quirin wrote an influential book on horse racing outlining form factors and performance, Winning at the Races, with definitions and more. These form factors have long been in use with many handicappers and some still continue to this day.
Episode 6 | The Mathematics of Horse Racing
Horse handicapping math, including $net, ROI, impact value, optimum bet (Kelly Criterion). $net is the average return for each $2 invested. Dave shows how to determine your $net calculations, understand the two ways of interpreting ROI, and much more.