Dave Schwartz, The Horse Handicapping Authority, discusses horse handicapping almost every Thursday evening at 5:30pm (pacific time).
The topics will ALWAYS be handicapping and things to improve your game.
Horse Handicapping Systems
Dave Schwartz, The Horse Handicapping Authority, discusses horse handicapping almost every Thursday evening at 5:30pm (pacific time).
The topics will ALWAYS be handicapping and things to improve your game.
wayne sadosski says
Dave
Great job. Unfortunately I came on a little late and missed 2/3 of you discussion on strength ratings it looked interesting and I would like to learn more…waiting for your post of the episode.
I also found the recency discussion quite interesting…what I have found ties into your data 30-90 you are fine 9 provided they horse has worked out as the time increase, around 30 is the sweet spot and over 90 days is a diminishing returns. Thanks
Dave Schwartz says
Workouts certainly add a dimension to the handicapping process. I had a very interesting conversation with John Barile, kind of a “super handicapper” (in my way of thinking) at Tampa Bay Downs. He might even read this and comment.
This is a guy who really does his homework, essentially, building workout charts for all the local tracks where Tampa horses work. He says it gives him an edge.
John J. Barile says
Thanks for the kind words Dave. Workouts have always presented a problem for handicappers. While everybody knows that a 35 flat is a solid work (almost anywhere), how many know that a 38.60 is a bullet at Hunter Farms (Huf) or that a 38.40 is a bullet at the Starting Gate Center (Sgc). By building a database of works for the feeder tracks and training facilities at my track and revising them every year, I’m able to spot sharp working horses that appear to be ordinary to others. If workouts are an important factor in your handicapping, its critical to be able to assess ALL the workouts, not just the ones your familiar with. I’ll be glad to share this valuable report (for Tampa’s feeder tracks and training centers) with all your members. Just email me at thetbdhandicapper@gmail.com
Dave Schwartz says
John, you must be the hardest working handicapper I know. Man, building stats for all those workout facilities… So, what do you do? Track the “average bullet work?” Or more?
John J. Barile says
That’s about right… I capture all the works for any horse that raced at Tampa, but exercised elsewhere, then I toss any work that was not the best of at least three works that day at the distance. After making adjustments for gate works and works that occurred when the “dogs” were out, I average them to determine the “average bullet work” for that distance at that facility.
You might be surprised to know that this report is one of the least labor intensive of the bakers dozen that I do during the off season…..just sayin….
Dave Schwartz says
I actually did an article in one of my old shows about workouts and provided my actual Parallel Workout Time Chart. Of course, I look at everything from the 5,000-foot level and try to decipher patterns of predictability on a much higher level than individual trainers. Try as I might to make Workout Pars for different tracks, I found nothing to improve upon my universal workout chart.
You, of course, spend much more time on one track than I could afford to spend on all of them.
Jeff says
Dave,
Regarding the 6/27 show. In your first example regarding strength ratings, you choose a race with a 7 horse field but used 4 numbers to calculate a strength rating. Should you have used only 3 numbers or am I misunderstanding how to create them?
In the third race, should you have rounded up so that the par should have been 80 vs the 79 shown in your example?
Question: If you are using pp’s that only contain 5 or 6 running lines, can you still use the method. Do you make any adjustments for lightly raced horses who may only have run 2 or 3 times?
thanks in advance for your clarification
Jeff
Dave Schwartz says
The other question… about the lightly-raced horse. No, I make no change.
Consider a horse that has the following ratings in 3 races (in sorted order):
85, 80, 70
His 2nd best rating is “80.” Do you think that is too low or is it too high? Some horses like this one will be improving/growing. Especially younger horses. On the other hand, some will have reached their maximum: 85 is the best they can hope to attain to.
All in all, the 2nd best rating is a reasonable target. At least for now.
Note that this “Strength is Par” approach does not replace form cycle analysis.
The only changes I make have to do with how I calculate the 2nd best speed rating with a horse that has only one race.
If a horse has just one race, I give him a “phony 2nd race that is 1 point lower. Thus, if a horse earned a speed rating of 85 in his only start, his 2nd best would be treated as “84.”
Donald Marr says
Hi Dave – Really enjoyed Live classes – looking forward to next week, and am having fun reading/analyzing Percentages & Probabilities. Don