OVERVIEW OF THE SERIES
Many people voiced their opinions on which influential horse handicapping authors they would like to explore, and I have developed the series to explore these authors’ theories, ideas, and how they shaped handicapping in general. More importantly, how the concepts can be applied today.
Here are some of the authors we will explore:
- Tom Ainslie Ainslie’s Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Handicapping 1968
- Frederick Davis Percentages and Probabilities 1973
- Andy Beyer Picking Winners
- William Quirin Winning at the Races 1979
- Howard Sartin Yellow Manual 1983
- Tom Brohamer Brohamer Model 1985
- Tom Brohamer Modern Pace Handicapping 1991
- Tom Hambleton and Dick Schmidt Pace Makes the Race 1991
- Dick Mitchell Common Sense Handicapping 1993
- Dave Schwartz Percentages and Probabilities 2012
In the series, we will go over concepts and ideas that may have been missed in the original readings. Please note: These are not Book Reviews! These are concepts which have merit today – perhaps in a different context to what the original author intended.
CHAPTER 1: Howard Sartin’s Yellow Manual
The first podcast of the series will explore Howard Sartin’s Yellow Manual from 1983. Even if you were never exposed to the Sartin Materials, you will enjoy this lesson.
gene todaro says
Thanks Dave – chapter 1
Can you visually draw how the model would look like on paper and how an example race would fit in that model?
Is there a way to keep track of , by race course, what the %early pace or maybe even a late pace % works at the various distances in the early, middle and late part of the race? So, if my contenders had a certain early pace% and the track profile favors a late pace % horse at this distance, that would turn my attention to a late pace horse as the top contender.
It would be great to know where each horse fits within the track profile for a given distance on dirt or on turf.
thanks again
Dave Schwartz says
Personally, I have never been able to get the energy percentages to work for me, but I am going to do a few changes in the metrics in the new software (Pace Makes the Race) and it may very well work.
I think one fallacy that modeling tends to encourage is the idea that a particular style cannot possibly win at a given track-surface-distance. The element that is left out is the pace shape of the race itself. Between you and Gerald I think I’ve got all I need for the next segment. Thanks to both of you.
Dave Schwartz says
I have a set of spreadsheets I am working on. They should be available by the 2nd week in April.
Gerald Kosmicki says
Pace after the race ” backfitting”
Although I do use I use your idea below on figs but use early figs and late figs to get a picture of horse and race, rather than speed figs.
1. from the horse showing 9 to 10 past performances races, show the 3rd best speed fig
& the 4th worst speed fig.
2. from the horse showing 6 to 8 past performances races ,
show the 2nd best speed fig & the 3rd worst speed fig.
3. from the horse showing 1 to 5 past performances races, show the best speed fig
& the 2nd best speed fig.
Dave Schwartz says
I recognize that approach! … From NewPace. I think I will do a segment on paceline selection. My approach is FAR different.
Gary Wenger says
Fibonacci modeling. That’s a great idea Dave.
Dave Schwartz says
Thanks, Gary. When in doubt… Fibonacci.