About 2 years agoÂ I began using 2 different pseudo-tote approaches. (Many HSH users are doing similar, I believe.) I have shared these objectsÂ with all of our users.
(Special note: Those who believe that nobody would ever give away anything of value might as well stop reading right now.)
Comprised of 6 factors, weighted in a reverse Fibonacci sequence.
This object is used at tracks with “lower” rebates. Most tracks fall into this category.
The factors were chosen based upon their correlation to the final odds. (Also considered was how much the prediction deviated from the results.)
The weights are not “correct.” They are “logical.”
Word of warning: The goal is not to actually predict the final odds. Rather it is to determine how the public usually bets. I find this is plenty good enough.
You will also find that there will still be times that the actual favorite is listed as 80/1 in your system. You will also find horses that you predict to be 4/5 go off at 12/1. Such is life.
If you have a better idea that is actually practical, please share it.
Morning Line weight =100
PSR weight =62
HDW/Cramer’s Proj Speed Rtg; similar to BRIS Prime Power
CPW weight = 38
older version of Cramer’s Proj Speed Rtg
Rtg weight = 24
Rating comprised of 28 high-level factors such as: Composite speed and pace ratings, ES Pts, etc.
Composite FT weight =14
Speed Rating comprised of:
33% Last Race
25% 2nd race
18% 3rd race
10% 4th race
2% 5th-10th races (each)
Composite Early Speed weight =9
Likelihood of going to the front.
Uses 32 high-level ratings, including ES Pts, Composite F1 (like composite FT, above), Comp EP, FT ratings from recent races, workouts, ,etc.
Comprised of the same 6 factors, weighted in a reverse Fibonacci sequence. However, Morning Line is moved to the 5th position in terms of weight.
This object is used at tracks with “higher” rebates. “Night” tracks fall into this category, as do tracks like PEN, TUP, and all the “smaller” ones where the ML can be so messed up.
For those using other ratings (such as BRIS,) consider creating 3 ratings using BRIS prime power to replace PST, CPWR, RTG:
1) By itself
2) BPP + ES Pts + M/L
3) BPP + DRF Consensus (or 4 sets of picks from some other source – could be a software program)
Other factors to consider:
Trainer’s total wins at this track in the last ?? days. Anything from 30 days to 4 years will work well here.
After you have created the ratings for each horse using the appropriate object (i.e. #1 or #2), normalize the ratings to “around 128 points.” This number depends upon track takeout, but is easy to compute.
Hope this helps relieve you of your dependence upon the tote board as it has me.