In the beginning there was no pace handicapping. Horse racing was without pace and void. Then there was Sartinian pace. It produced a high percentage of winners at the very good mutuels. People tried pace handicapping and saw that it was good. In the early days pace handicapping made life easy.
Stories of the success of pace methodologists spread far and wide. More people came to pace. Books were written to make it easier to understand. As more people came the prices got smaller. And smaller. And still smaller. Eventually, it reached the point where the good mutuels were all but gone, replaced almost entirely by favorites and second choices.
If you were a pace practitioner, in the late 80s or early 90s the game really did seem easy, especially in comparison to today. By the mid-90s, pace handicapping had become a very common approach to handicapping horses. The edge that pace handicappers had enjoyed for several years was gone.
People tried many adjustments to gain that advantage back. While the basic pace concepts stood, the application of those concepts changed. Some tried pace numbers rather than feet-per-second ratings. Others tried adding more factors than simply EP, SP and W. Still others built grander models. Nothing seemed to improve the plight of the pace handicapper.
Well it's time to change all that! I have developed a completely new approach to handicapping horses! It is truly different and the good news is the differences will put the edge back in to pace handicapping for you.
I call it "New Pace."
What's so different about it? Just about everything. Let's start with the basic premise that most pace handicappers hold dear: "What matters most in determining the winner is the horses' position at the second call."
My investigations have shown that not only is the second call position not MOST important, it is actually the LEAST important call! In fact, it is so unimportant that you can ignore it entirely!
I know this is a very provocative statement but I wouldn't make it if I couldn't back it up with proof. Watch this video (under 3 minutes) for a quick explanation.
Want some more? It continues here with 2-minutes more.
john zerhusen says
thank you very much….john
George Kostecki says
Just saw your Early/Late video BUT how do I finish it? You say take the time and “turn the page”….How do I do that????
Dave Schwartz says
The logical next step would be to purchase the NewPace handicapping system which can be found at this link:
http://store.thehorsehandicappingauthority.com
Anonymous says
when will the race tracks treat the $2 bettor as the main objective to keep horse racing popular ???? they should have something like the play offs in high school basketball . set up so its only a two horse race is run which people seem to love . they call it the sport of kings but they should realise that it is COMMON FOLK that fill the seats .
Dave Schwartz says
I feel your pain, but that ship has sailed. Sorry.
The answer is “never.” The day of the $2 bettor is done. Understand that I don’t especially like it, but that is reality.
Did you know that until 1986 horse racing was the #1 spectator sport IN THE WORLD? The tracks allowed that to slip away when they did not get onboard the ESPN-driven revolution that propelled the other sports to greatness. They guarded their “signal” so jealously that they made it (collectively) more valuable than the Super Bowl.
I once did a consulting gig with the management of a race track. Their only interest was to find more players willing to lose $500+ per day, 4 times per week. Note that I said LOSE and not BET.
The crazy thing is that in the next paragraph, they said, “People have to realize that racing is ENTERTAINMENT. It is not about making money.”
I asked the track managers, “How often each MONTH do you go out for a $500-night of entertainment? Do you do that 20+ times per month?”
The horse racing business model does not work because the people in charge have been out of touch with reality for 25 years or more. They can’t compete with what the bettor can get at home from his computer. The betting is just a better deal and the tariffs to attendance (i.e. parking, program, food, beer, etc.) is so high. My wife makes a mean pastrami sandwich for far less than the $12 I’d likely pay for half-a-sandwich-worth at the track.