This is the transcript for the second segment of Exacta Betting on Handicapping Live Show #3:
The Handicapping Live Show, Episode 3 featured several topics. One of which was Using A Tiered Approach to Exacta Betting. In this segment Dave is continuing to explain how to structure your ticket.
We took 5500 races: claiming sprints, non-winners of two, lifetime. There were 5500 races in two years. When you look at the average exacta prices and the dollar net this bears consideration.
This is part 2 of the Structuring Your Ticket When Using A Tiered Approach To Exacta Betting.
In the last post I talked about the key to strong exacta play begins with picking good contenders and then structuring your tickets properly. Its number two where most people get lost.
- You must pick good contenders.
- Structuring the ticket properly. The nature of most people is they want to narrow the race down as little as they can. And that means I am going to miss a lot of those big hits.
Subsequently, mMost players automatically think “box”. Whether it be 2, 3 or 4 horses. So I said I’m going to teach you today is different. There is a time and place for boxing but MOST of the time there is a better way.
Continuing from the last post (found here):
Let’s look at all of the potential combinations of this four horse box. Don’t waste your time trying to multiply the numbers out. Your math and my math and our handicapping are probably not that good.
I handicapped these races by using what I call the ‘par time approach’. I look at the best final time ever against the second best ever of all the horses and I look at their strength ratings. Then I simply took the four best horses. (See also: Strength Rating) It’s not a rigid par time approach, in other words if I have a $20,000 race populated with $12,000 horses then why would I want to use a $20,000 par?
Here are the two questions you want to ask: Which combos have “value”? And which have “hit rate”? The first thing we see is the obvious. The ones that had the most value were the ones that were the combinations that included the 7 the 4 and the 6. Obviously those three connected up and that’s where you would find the most value. You can see I’ve highlighted those with the plus signs.
Now if we ask the question: which have small value but still have some value. The answer would be any of the combinations that included one of these three horses.
So that means even the combination, like the 5 and the 4 or the 5 and the 6, the one that probably doesn’t have much value is the 7 and the 5. Why? Because I don’t give him near the credit here, in other words, I don’t think he’s as good a bet as these other ones here in terms of value. Another way to say this is that these horses have enough value to carry the negative influence of the five.
So if I ask the question which combination has hit rate, well there is only really one combination and that would be the 7-5. Obviously the 4-6 is almost never going to come up. I mean it’s long shot to long shot.
In this race, this demands some kind of key horse exacta. In other words instead of a box, and first of all, the most logical combination here is the 7 over the 4 and the 6.
I mean, it’s just very logical that the 7 over the 4-6 because it does have some degree of hit rate. It’s likely the 7 horse is going to win or run second of our potential combinations.
The 7-5 we have determined there is no value. Don’t try to put a saver on this because it will probably lose you 20, 30, 40 cents, it will probably lose you 25 cents per wagered dollar. So you’d have to just take this one and say that isn’t going to work.
So of the rest, what I want is, I want an exacta that keys the 7 and the 4-6. Do I want them both ways? For this example I’m going to say yes. Technically what you want is to bet the 7 to the 4-6 for more money than you do to the 4-6 to the 7. Now you might say that there is greater value in the 4 to the 7 than the 6 to the 7 but your chances of cashing a ticket are probably half as much.
So let’s take this key horse exacta and let’s add that to our mix and set it aside. Then we will come back and work on another one.
So, this race also demands what I call the big hit exacta. That is the 4-6. Obviously you like the four and the six and every once in awhile you’re going to catch lightning in a bottle and you’re going to cash.
So when you do this, you want to be there. But if you want to put all your money on this you’re going to watch the 7-4 romp. You’re going to watch the 7-4 or the 4-7 or the 7-6 come in a lot more often and you’re not going to cash. Or you’re not going to have enough money on it.
So the big hit exacta would be the 4-6. You know, in the old days we would never call this a box, we would call this a reverse exacta. But the terminology today has changed. Back in the 70s and 80s you didn’t call two horses a box, you called them a reverse exacta.
Anyway, we want to add the 4-6 exacta to our big hit. Now it is also logical to play the small hit exacta. So in other words you could play the 4-6 with the 5. Why? Because there’s probably enough profit here to carry the loss contributed to by the 5. So if it comes 5-6, you’re probably still going to get a surprisingly good price. So we will add that to our bag of tricks here.
So we wind up with this, this is not a small ticket, and if we now take these potential tickets and we do just what we did with the original combinations and we rate them for profitability then it looks like this:
The big hit exacta is obviously going to be the most profitable. Then we rate the exacta for probability. The probability of the big hit is very small, the probability of the key horse is pretty good.
Now what probably happens in the race is it probably comes 7-5 or 5-7. If my belief is right then my 7 outruns the 5 because I think he’s a better horse. But I could be wrong.
So, this is where what we call the tiers come in. I don’t mean crying tears. You want to wager more money on your likely and profitable outcomes.
So this is one way to structure a ticket when using the tiered approach.
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