This is the transcript for one segment of Handicapping Live Show #3: Exacta Analysis
The Handicapping Live Show, Episode 3 featured several topics. One of which was Using A Tiered Approach to Exacta Betting.
What I’ve done here, effectively, is I have taken all the horses in our sample and I’ve broken them down by odds ranges. Horse A goes up to 3 to 1. If he was 3.5 then he’d go to the next group. So if you had two horses that were 2 to 1 and one that was 3 to 1 – it would be an A-A ticket.
What we are doing is we are looking at how the different ticket structures payoff.
The graphic below shows the different ticket structures possible with the different payoffs.
Now, let’s talk for a minute about the A-A combination – the A horse is on top, the average A-A pays $19+, it’s a $2 bet and wins about 10 percent of the time. Here’s the thing about A-A. Remember I made a statement about short fields and how many low priced horses there are – the same thing holds true in the larger fields. What you find is that if you look at the A-A’s and ask the question ‘what are the three lowest horses’ – an A-A-A race versus an A-A-B race you will find the first has a higher price. The public is primarily responsible for where the horse falls in the grid. You as an experienced player will decide if you like the combos the public picks.
A-D and A-E are very very tough tickets to cash! AND you are starting with a very big disadvantage. Just to be clear the D group starts above the C group at 18-39.99 to 1.
Now let’s look at the B combinations:
The pay offs are like 60% more but look at the percentages of the wins. Notice the dollar nets. Notice the bias that exists here. There is a bias in B’s versus C’s. It’s a sweet spot! A-A’s have the high dollar net because they dominate. Other than the A-A’s you are not seeing any big dollar nets.
We will see this in other races as well.
Now let’s see the C horses on top.
Look at what happens to the dollar nets. (Also notice the percentage of time they will win.) When your key horse is 10 to 1 in this sweet spot, what you are going to find is the C-A and the C-B which are the best return (look back at the A-C and the B-C); it’s the best, it’s still where the bias is! If you think the B-E was tough, look at C-E. Less than 1%! Overall when you key a C horse to something else it’s a really tough dollar net to overcome.
Now we are going to go down to the D’s
Take a look at the D-A, well ok. Now look at the D-B, once again we have the bias to the B horse. The whole point of the article is that the B group of horses is where you find the most profitable Exactas. Now we’ve all cashed the big tickets. My biggest Exacta was at Saratoga and went 612 I think. At the Pace Advantage Toga Party in front of a crowd! But I had a couple of others, I had one that went 1800…I had one that went 3600 but that was yearrrrrrs ago (like 2005-8). And I was spread and I didn’t have near as much on that Exacta as I did on the others.
You can see the D-D’s did come in, the bias is still with D with B and D with E.
Finally we have the all time favorite, E-E. The interesting thing is notice that the bias went away with the long shots. Overall, the combinations with E on top – lose over 50 cents per wager dollar. Does this mean you should never bet those exactas? NO! But for some people, and I’ve known a bunch of them, there is a natural tendency to relive that moment! So they will take the long shot and lose!
In the next segment I’m going to show you how to structure your tickets. You may have never looked at structuring them the way I’m going to show you!
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