This is the transcript for the second segment of Exacta Betting on Handicapping Live Show #3:
The Handicapping Live Show, Episode 3 featured several topics. One of which was Using A Tiered Approach to Exacta Betting. In this segment Dave is explaining how to structure your ticket.
We took 5500 races: claiming sprints, non-winners of two, lifetime. There were 5500 races in two years. When you look at the average exacta prices and the dollar net this bears consideration.
What I want to do is I want to lead you through structuring tickets. The key to strong exacta play begins with picking good contenders and then structuring your tickets properly. Its number two where most people get lost.
First of all you must pick good contenders. The nature of most people is they want to narrow the race down as little as they can.
Here is the problem, a lot of my clients use a product of ours called New Pace. The nature of New Pace is that in most races it picks four horses. Rarely it picks three and occasionally it will pick five.
Many of the players want to get it down to three horses. The problem is the big hits are consistently the fourth best horse.
Many people are using our product called NewPace. The nature of NewPace is it usually picks four contenders and rarely it will pick three and sometimes five contenders.
The problem is the ‘big hits’ come from the 4th best horse. He’s got a good chance of winning and today his odds are awesome.
So, if I’m only picking three contenders I am going to miss a lot of those big hits. Of course, most of the time if I pick three contenders I’m getting first, second, third choice. I might get first, third, and fifth choice or first, second, seventh choice.
Most of the time the top three picks will be 1-2-4, 1-3-4, 2-3-4, over and over again. It is that fourth best horse, not the best horse in the race, but he has a good chance of winning today.
Most players automatically think “box”. Whether it be 2, 3 or 4 horses. What I’m going to teach you today is different. There is a time and place for boxing but MOST of the time there is a better way.
Today’s word of the day is Exploitation. That is, how you take advantage of the perceived edge that you have in the race.
There is an optimum way for you to create a ticket but it’s different from race to race.
We are going to work through just a couple of examples here. In these examples I’m using my software, not because this is a commercial for my software but because it is kind of the easiest way to do it.
Here you see a race open from Saturday July 20th and I’m not going to explain the screen we are going to concentrate on this section right here. The little ones there marked in yellow, these are my contenders. You can see I have them sorted by my hit rate.
Now, the reality is: if my hit rate was any good this is all I would need. But the reality is that none of our hit rates are any good. They are all estimations and they have a tendency to go towards the extreme.
I don’t believe for a minute that this seven to one horse really only has a 1.7% chance of winning. Neither do I think this three to five shot only has a 27% chance.
The point is that I think if I look in the dollar net column I can logically think that this is a good horse, this is most likely a good bet, or this is most likely a bad bet. This is the premise that I am functioning on.
Now, when you look at a race like this if you’re going to structure any exacta ticket there are two things you should to consider.
First of all, you should ask the question “who will probably win the race”? The answer to that is probably 7 or 5. We gauge this based upon, not only my projected hit rate but on the odds themselves.
Now, these are my two horses. If my picks are any good then, most of the time, the 7 and the 5, one of them, are going to win this race.
The second question we need to ask is “where is the value in this race”? It’s pretty obvious that according to my handicapping I think these horses have the value.
Now, you’re not using my software, but whatever it is that you are doing you should be able to look at your contenders. And I do, really, seriously, advocate four contenders.
There may be races that you feel there are only three horses that have a shot at winning, or maybe two or even one. I do suggest that you put those other horses in anyway.
At least, what I do as a rule of thumb is if I come up in a race with less than four contenders, I add one contender.
So, that means, if my selection has two contenders, then I’m going to add one. If it has three contenders, then I am going to add one. If I had a race where I only had one contender, I would add one.
If I were that good, I wouldn’t have a problem here. The game would be really easy.
(This segment will continue on a new post! Please stay tuned!)
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