Transcript for the very popular Pace Makes the Race Podcast, aired in November 2016. Part 3Â of 5, check back soon for the next installment!
- Bridge Jumpers – 75% or more of total show pool.
- Bridge Jumper tracks can be charted.
- What makes a Bridge Jumper fail?
- Dubious Trainer Patterns
- Chaos Races
Special Mentions: John Barile, Mark David
Chapter 3: Dave Talks About Arcangues in the Breederâ€™s Cup
Dave: I am all about the gambling side. To me the Derby, Preakness, Belmont, Breederâ€™s Cup – are all such atypical racing days that I cannot study them. In fact, on Breederâ€™s Cup day or Derby day, it is not just the races at Churchill Downs I cannot play.
I cannot play anything!
I see horse racing as a socio-economic problem. That is, it is an issue of how the public wagers its money and of course there is also a component of predicting probabilities there. When you get a day that is so skewed away from normal â€œsociology,â€ for lack of a better word, I just do not know how to study it. I have learned over the years that sometimes I have fun with the Breederâ€™s Cup, Kentucky Derby or whatever, a week later I have all but forgotten who was in the race.
I do remember the French horse even though I did not bet it because a friend of mine had that horse. He said that he had a dream two or three nights before and a horse with a French name burst out of the pack and won â€œsome race.â€Â This is a really high-level technical computer guy and he actually called me the day before the Breederâ€™s Cup and announces that he has figured out who the horse is and he bet $2 across on the horse. My phone rang while the horse is in mid-stretch and has exploded out of the pack. â€Itâ€™s him, itâ€™s him!â€
Derek: It is those times when I just want to quit the game. I remember the 2008 Kentucky Derby. I love to get my kids involved even though they could care less about horse racing. My daughter was little at the time, picked the horses in the Kentucky Derby. She said I like Mine That Bird and of course that is the horse that won.
Dave: That is what happened to my friend Stewart. They woke and were going to the race book one day on a Saturday and his wife said, â€˜I had a dream last night and this horse is going to win. I want you to put $10 to win and place on this horse for meâ€™.
He got there and looked at the horse and said there is no way this horse can win – he was about 30-1 â€“ so he just skipped the bet. The horse burst out of the gate, went wire to wire and paid $37. She was supposed to have it win/place and he had to explain to her. She called these â€œRocking Horse Winners.â€
Derek: Oh, from the old story
Dave: There is a background to that?
Derek: Yes. That is actually the name of a story I read as a kid. Basically, it was a kid who would have dreams about which horses would win. It is the perfect title for those kinds of horses
Dave: You are telling me there is like a fairytale book for horse players?
Derek: No, it is not a handicapping book – it is a classic story. I cannot remember the author, but I want to say it is not a US-based author. We read it in school but obviously this was not a way to indoctrinate us into gambling, I do not think it was so, maybe it was. I do remember that book as a kid.
Dave: It was probably Mike Helm, the guy who did the Pedigree stuff. (Joke)
About Derek Simon:
I love numbers and analysis and have been able to parlay that into an exciting career writing about two of my greatest passions â€” business and sports.
In addition to working as a freelance financial writer for Newsmax, The Motley Fool, Investopedia/Forbes, Beacon Equity Research and Investor Concepts (among others), I was also the editor of Small Cap Insider, a monthly newsletter highlighting investment opportunities in the small cap sector.
Currently, I am the editorial director for US Racing where I contribute written, audio and video content and oversee a team of talented and passionate writers.
Check back often.Â Did you know that the best stuffÂ goes directly to our email community?Â Be the first to hear about special offers, new products, and new material.Â Sign Up Today.
Join the discussion in ourÂ private Talking Handicapping with Dave Schwartz Facebook Group.