Handicapping Maiden Races & First Time Starters: Can You Bet Against Them?

First Time Starters: Can You Bet Against Them?

By Richard B. Valentine
In handicapping maiden races, we are often faced with the problem of first-time starters. Over the years many experts have advised us to simply skip races where first timers are entered.

Should we? Let’s take a look.


Maiden Races – Status
		Starts	Wins	Win%	$net	IV	PIV	Avg Pay	Avg Odds	Avg PubCh
	Prev	146,479	16,964	11.6%	$1.49	1.06	0.99	$12.88	6.25	4.9
	Fgn	191	29	15.2%	$2.08	1.39	0.93	$13.70	5.97	4.4
	FTS	36,777	3,042	8.3%	$1.40	0.76	0.98	$16.99	8.54	5.5
	total	183,447	20,035	10.9%	$1.47	1.00	0.99	$13.50	6.61	5.0

In this study, comprised of 20,000 maiden races, we we have broken the starters into three categories:


Prev	Horses which have started at least once
Fgn	Horses making their first start in the U.S.
FTS	First Time Starters

The first thing we notice is that 3,042 of the winners, about 15%, were first-time starters. In addition, the $net (which represents the average return for each $2.00 wagered) is about the same. The win percentage of FTS is lower, but they make up for it with a higher average mutuel.

What happens if we break the races into maiden special weights and maiden claiming?


Maiden Special Weight Races – Status
		Starts	Wins	Win%	$net	IV	PIV	Avg Pay	Avg Odds	Avg PubCh
	Prev	68,613	8,035	11.7%	$1.47	1.07	1.00	$12.59	6.20	4.9
	Fgn	152	26	17.1%	$2.38	1.58	1.24	$13.93	5.12	4.2
	FTS	23,194	1,959	8.4%	$1.32	0.78	0.90	$15.61	8.04	5.4
	Total	91,959	10,020	10.9%	$1.44	1.00	0.98	$13.19	6.59	5.0

In the above table of 10,000 maiden special weight races, we see a slightly more extreme pattern. Here almost 20% of the races were won by FTS, but the $net has dropped to $1.32, a loss of 34% of each wagered dollar! Notice, also, that the win percentage has hardly changed (from 8.3 to 8.4 percent).

And what about the 10,000 maiden claiming races in our sample?


Maiden Claiming Races – Status
		Starts	Wins	Win%	$net	IV	PIV	Avg Pay	Avg Odds	Avg PC
	Prev	77,866	8,929	11.5%	$1.51	1.05	0.99	$13.13	6.29	4.9
	Fgn	39	3	7.7%	$0.91	0.69	0.93	$11.87	9.26	5.4
	FTS	13,583	1,083	8.0%	$1.55	0.74	0.98	$19.38	9.40	5.7
	Total	91,488	10,015	10.9%	$1.51	1.00	0.99	$13.81	6.63	5.0

In the this sample we see that the $net actually went up slightly, from $1.51 to $1.55.

Summary

In conclusion, we would say that, while first-time starters have an impact on the races, they are certainly not to be feared. In the environment where they win most often, maiden special weight races, they actually have a positive influence on your wallet because they draw “wasted money” into the pool.