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Handicapping Maiden Races & First Time Starters: Can You Bet Against Them?

First Time Starters: Can You Bet Against Them?
By Richard B. Valentine
In handicapping maiden races, we are often faced with the problem of first-time starters. Over the years many experts have advised us to simply skip races where first timers are entered.

Should we? Let’s take a look.

Maiden Races – Status
Starts Wins Win% $net IV PIV Avg Pay Avg Odds Avg PubCh
Prev 146,479 16,964 11.6% $1.49 1.06 0.99 $12.88 6.25 4.9
Fgn 191 29 15.2% $2.08 1.39 0.93 $13.70 5.97 4.4
FTS 36,777 3,042 8.3% $1.40 0.76 0.98 $16.99 8.54 5.5
total 183,447 20,035 10.9% $1.47 1.00 0.99 $13.50 6.61 5.0

In this study, comprised of 20,000 maiden races, we we have broken the starters into three categories:

Prev Horses which have started at least once
Fgn Horses making their first start in the U.S.
FTS First Time Starters

The first thing we notice is that 3,042 of the winners, about 15%, were first-time starters. In addition, the $net (which represents the average return for each $2.00 wagered) is about the same. The win percentage of FTS is lower, but they make up for it with a higher average mutuel.

What happens if we break the races into maiden special weights and maiden claiming?

Maiden Special Weight Races – Status
Starts Wins Win% $net IV PIV Avg Pay Avg Odds Avg PubCh
Prev 68,613 8,035 11.7% $1.47 1.07 1.00 $12.59 6.20 4.9
Fgn 152 26 17.1% $2.38 1.58 1.24 $13.93 5.12 4.2
FTS 23,194 1,959 8.4% $1.32 0.78 0.90 $15.61 8.04 5.4
Total 91,959 10,020 10.9% $1.44 1.00 0.98 $13.19 6.59 5.0

In the above table of 10,000 maiden special weight races, we see a slightly more extreme pattern. Here almost 20% of the races were won by FTS, but the $net has dropped to $1.32, a loss of 34% of each wagered dollar! Notice, also, that the win percentage has hardly changed (from 8.3 to 8.4 percent).

And what about the 10,000 maiden claiming races in our sample?

Maiden Claiming Races – Status
Starts Wins Win% $net IV PIV Avg Pay Avg Odds Avg PC
Prev 77,866 8,929 11.5% $1.51 1.05 0.99 $13.13 6.29 4.9
Fgn 39 3 7.7% $0.91 0.69 0.93 $11.87 9.26 5.4
FTS 13,583 1,083 8.0% $1.55 0.74 0.98 $19.38 9.40 5.7
Total 91,488 10,015 10.9% $1.51 1.00 0.99 $13.81 6.63 5.0

In the this sample we see that the $net actually went up slightly, from $1.51 to $1.55.

Summary

In conclusion, we would say that, while first-time starters have an impact on the races, they are certainly not to be feared. In the environment where they win most often, maiden special weight races, they actually have a positive influence on your wallet because they draw “wasted money” into the pool.

Comments

  1. Cincyhorseplayer says

    January 30, 2011 at 9:48 am

    Here in Ohio I religiously bet first time starters from Kentucky with good sires.Sometimes it can be as simple as name recognition.I have cashed nearly a dozen on Skip Away and Point Given FTS over the last 2 years.Breedingwinners puts me on some others with their sire stats.Plus there are about half a dozen stables that use this move,knowing that against dominantly Ohio breds it can be easy pickins.The avg mutuel is around 5-1.

    Reply
  2. Lawn Mower Enthusiast says

    January 30, 2011 at 9:08 pm

    Dave,
    Great site. I look forward to seeing it grow and prosper!

    Reply
  3. John Charte says

    February 17, 2011 at 6:05 am

    Be careful not to automatically throw out a FTS because you’ve labelled him in that low win rate category. I always remind myself that handicapping each race is a relative evaluation of the field of each race. Some great scores have been made by me when I find a FTS that is infinitely preferable to the other non-FTS horses in the race who have definitively proven by their races that they are 100% talentless crap.

    Reply

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