Horse Handicapping: Let’s Go Whale Hunting Part 1

If the value is dead, what is the alternative? How do we find a way to become profitable, if we cannot do it from a line making standpoint?

Permit me to introduce Wee Willie Keeler, a baseball player from the early 20th century. His advice to hitters was “Keep your eye clear, and hit it where they ain’t,” is applicable to our situation with the whales.

In other words, we need to avoid fishing directly in the whales’ territory (i.e. low prices). We need to concentrate on higher-priced horses. We must stop looking for standouts that will pay double digits. They simply do not exist on a plentiful basis.

Another way to say this is that we must stop asking the question, Who will win this race? and, instead, ask the question, “Who can win this race?” The difference between these two questions is huge.

When one asks “Who will win this race?” one is looking for a high degree of certainty in the outcome of our wager. “Certainty” and “high prices” do not belong in the same sentence. One simply does not beget the other.

What I am suggesting is that you stop handicapping and concentrate your effort into distinct areas: contender selection and wagering strategies.

More specifically, I am suggesting that you develop an approach that selects precisely 4 contenders in each horse race, and that you work to get that contender win percentage up at least into the high 70s if not low 80s. You should also recognize that if your win percentage is being driven by horses under 7/2 it will be difficult to be profitable. What you’re really trying to accomplish in this process is to increase the number of winning contenders at 7/2 and above.

If you’re doing a good job with this, ultimately you should be able to take any odds range above 7 to 2, divide them into two groups, those that are your contenders and those that are not. The “are not” group should be big losers while the ones that are your contenders should be winners.

This covers the first phase: contender selection. In my next blog post I will talk about the wagering phase. CLICK HERE for Part 2